PNG crisis likely to drag on until the people vote

PAPUA New Guinea's Council of Churches dedicated last Sunday to prayer for the country's constitutional crisis to be overcome. Many think prayer provides the most realistic chance for a solution.
Nothing else seems to work. Inexorably, the team led by Prime Minister Peter O'Neill has gained the upper hand, as seems inevitable in a Westminster-style democracy - since he controls the parliament, which has passed a suite of measures legitimising his government.

Michael Somare, despite being PNG's founding father, is struggling to gain traction - relying on the courts since the failure of the desultory military coup on his behalf last month.

But the loose ends that remain are so numerous, and the fracture in PNG's body politic is so extensive, as to threaten the success of the national election due mid-year that has long looked to be the only ultimate answer.

On Monday, the Supreme Court meets yet again in an attempt to prioritise the 11 cases that the political crisis has spawned in the past few weeks. Acting chief justice Salika Gibbs has vowed to resolve them all - and especially the core issue of who is the legitimate prime minister - by April 27, when the writs are due to be issued for the election.

After that date, the sitting government automatically becomes the caretaker authority until the next government is formed by parliament following the national election. It thus keeps its hands on the levers of state authority at a crucial stage in the democratic cycle.

Gibbs says the first matter to be decided by the Supreme Court will be the key one, which the judge's critics say is for parliament, not the courts, to settle: who is legitimate prime minister?

The chaotic constitutional situation started on December 12, when the Supreme Court ruled that Somare was the true prime minister, despite O'Neill having been elected by parliament on August 2.

The court said Somare had not resigned or been found incapable of governing, despite his five-month absence in Singapore for medical treatment, and so his position was not vacant.

The country has since struggled under two rival prime ministers, cabinets, police and army chiefs, but on the ground the situation was soon resolved, with O'Neill and his team being accepted by the public service, police, army, and most of the public as the true government.

The court ruled 3-2 for Somare back in December, and so was clearly split.
But the O'Neill government has launched repeated attempts to suspend chief justice Salamo Injia, who is perceived to be pro-Somare, accusing him of misusing court funds - even having the police prevent him from entering the court earlier this week as the cases that have emerged from the current crisis began to be heard. This push against Injia has tended to drive the judges into greater solidarity.

But it remains possible that through the customary complexity of legal process and the intentional prevarication of the O'Neill government, the court will not conclude the key cases until parliament concludes its final sitting and the electoral process is under way.

The parliament, which the O'Neill government dominates, is due to start sitting again on Tuesday - and could stay in session through to the issue of writs for the election.

The Somare team - except for Queensland-born Carol Kidu, the only woman MP - has stayed away from parliament since December 12, insisting that it should sit on the government benches, at least until the MPs pass a vote of no-confidence.

Such a move, however, would automatically trigger the election - with Somare being entitled to head the caretaker government.

In the period during which O'Neill has presided via a disputed leadership, PNG has suffered its worst disasters in the air and, a fortnight ago, at sea - reinforcing a sense among the broader population of disconnection from the political elite, who are perceived as focusing on their own causes.

But O'Neill has been applauded for the rapid disbursement of $3.5 million for the 246 survivors, and the families of the 100 missing passengers, following the sinking of the Rabaul Queen, and for swiftly appointing acting NSW judge Warwick Andrew - a former PNG judge, who headed the inquiry into the sinking of the ferry Princess Ashika in Tonga, drowning 74. Andrew will lead an inquiry that will also involve Brisbane barrister Manuel Varitimos.

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd - who has come under fire for failing to involve himself sufficiently in the PNG crisis - told parliament this week: "PNG always has, and always will be, a key priority for Australian foreign policy. Our engagement with PNG and its key government figures has been deep and close."

He added: "It is for Papua New Guineans to resolve their political differences. The ultimate resolution of political differences in a democracy is through the constitutional and electoral processes of that country."
He said the efforts of Australian high commissioner Ian Kemish and of Australian Defence Force representatives had "contributed to the progressive diffusion" of the failed pro-Somare coup last month.
Rudd said Kemish had "cautioned against high-profile political visits or high profile political communications with PNG political leaders for fear that such actions would fuel rather than ease the situation".

The Australian government had been working with PNG to support election plans, assisting with logistics, operations and voter awareness programs with the PNG Electoral Commission, Rudd said. Australia had also aided the police with communications, training and recruitment, and was funding the lease of two helicopters for the military

THE AUSTRALIAN