Papua New Guinea sees chance for order

Papua New Guinea's political impasse has rattled along for nine months with barely a week passing without some constitutional or national crisis. Having two prime ministers, two cabinets, two governors-general, two police commissioners and at one point – during a short-lived mutiny at army headquarters – two military commanders has brought a new level of uncertainty, even by this country's standards.

While most of PNG's public institutions have supported the administration of Peter O'Neill, the standoff over who is the legitimate government has undermined the Melanesian country's democratic pillars.

If there was initial enthusiasm for the new-look government after the parliamentary ousting of long-time prime minister Sir Michael Somare, a subsequent arm-wrestle between O'Neill's coalition and the judiciary, as well as moves to defer elections, have eroded much of that.

Repeated attempts by the O'Neill government to remove the chief justice, Sir Salamo Injia, who has been presiding over constitutional hearings on the legality of O'Neill's election last August, have seen the coalition pass the unpopular Judicial Conduct Act, which allows the government to suspend judges.

The judiciary has been the most robust of PNG's democratic arms since independence in 1975. The attempt to modify this and the use of a parliamentary majority to do whatever its leaders like, including passing retrospective laws, has seriously compromised the legitimacy of government, says Ron May of the Australian National University's state, society and governance in Melanesia programme.

"Mind you, the slope was slippery even before August 2011", he says of the Somare era, "with the adjourning of parliament to avoid votes of no confidence, manipulation of parliamentary processes, 'executive dominance' etc.

"Once politicians have seen they can do this, it will be hard to stop them in future, unless some strong leaders with integrity emerge from the election."

In April, parliament passed a motion to defer by six months the five-yearly elections, sparking an outcry. Social media played a pivotal role in facilitating the protest. A guarantee was secured from O'Neill that elections would proceed as scheduled in late June, although calls from MPs for deferral continue.

The rise of social media in PNG – the number of Facebook users has more than doubled in the last year to over 80,000 – couldn't have come at a better time. "Citizens are becoming more aware. For the first time, there's great demand for good leadership and accountability," says Alphonse Gelu, the registrar of PNG's Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates Commission. "There's an unprecedented amount of action by civil society groups and trade unions, taking stands against government decisions."

There are also a record number of candidates for the 109 seats. Already 4,300 have come forward, and that figure is expected to rise.

The readiness of the electoral rolls has been a worry. "Well over half of PNG's population is in the highlands and incomplete rolls in these provinces would disenfranchise them," said the governor of the National Capital District, Powes Parkop.

Elections have always been fraught processes in PNG. Two weeks of polling across jungle, mountains and islands involves a set of complex challenges. Many voters can't get to the polling stations. With few roads, transporting ballot boxes and electoral teams relies heavily on air travel. The electoral roll is incomplete, contains many duplications and ghost names, with corruption preventing the electoral commission from doing its job. And campaigning and voting are often riddled by violence.

Australia and New Zealand provide assistance for the election. And Australia's foreign minister, Bob Carr, was quick to threaten to isolate PNG internationally if elections were deferred. "Australia has to realise that people die during an election year in PNG", said Parkop. "So as much as we want the election to be conducted on time so that our people exercise their rights, we must make sure that the process is up to it so that we reduce the possibility of people dying."

The PNG Co-ordinator for the International State Crime Initiative, Kristian Laslett, says Australia is determined that PNG will not descend into chaos. "While Australian companies certainly make money in PNG, it is the region's security that is of most palpable significance to Australian foreign policymakers."

He says Australia often leverages its regional security role as the region's "sheriff".

Canberra's anxiety over political instability in PNG is not always shared by international investors. "Some mining executives see PNG as a basketcase, mired and fragmented by thousands of different interest groups," says Laslett. "There are executives, on the other hand, who have a more optimistic view of PNG as a site for investment."

While opportunities continue to increase for major resource development in PNG – and the country's GDP has climbed for most of a decade without improving the poor living conditions of the vast majority – the desperation of politicians to cling to power seems to grow.

The government's last option for delaying elections may be declaring a state of emergency. The troop deployment to the Highlands might foreshadow such a declaration. Doubtless anticipating this, NGOs have urged the public to keep exercising restraint so as not to give MPs any reason to turn the screws again over the polls.

While the guarantee of elections remains up in the air, the chief justice has refused to step down over misconduct allegations by the government, dismissed government's suspensions of him under its new law and, after being arrested in a dramatic capture by heavily armed police on a main motorway in the capital, continues to operate in his role under protection of a small unit of loyal police.

The judicial law has effectively been stayed in the courts as a vortex of constitutional matters swirls, relating to the removal of Somare, PNG's father of independence.

Whether this is the junction of a new political era for PNG is unclear.

But because the country usually sees an over 50% turnover of MPs at elections, a lot of new faces can be expected to emerge, and it's clear that people view the process as the real solution to the political impasse.


Johnny Blades

This article was first published by the Guardian Weekly