PNG’S 2017 BUDGET – FISCALLY FRAUDULENT

by PAUL FLANAGAN 
PNG’s 2017 budget was a key opportunity to demonstrate the credibility of the government’s economic management before next year’s election.  It fails.
Foolish games with numbers and unrealistic assumptions severely undermine the budget’s credibility (detailed examples on the revenue and expenditure side are provided below). Indeed, the level of deception arguably approaches fraud.
This preliminary assessment of the budget documents will be updated over the next few days.  Hopefully more good will be found in the detail.
A major winner from the budget are overseas petroleum shareholders with proposed cuts in the company tax rate from 45 or 50% down to 30%. This will be of particular joy to Oil Search and others that will gain from a new possible Papua LNG project – but they are possibly accessing the lower rate for condensate already. PNG’s tax regime for the petroleum sector was already considered generous relative to world standards – it now will be even more so. And although some of the changes mirror suggestions in the the Sir Nagora tax review, off-setting elements such as the introduction of a capital gains tax and reduced tax incentives are not mentioned in the budget changes.
These are interesting choices by government given major cuts in key areas such as health, education and infrastructure , with further foreshadowed cuts of 11% in nominal terms and 37% in real terms from 2017 to 2021.  Even from the 2016 budget, the cuts are very large.  Extraordinary, and in part reflecting the needed priority on the election but the more optional K250m for APEC in 2017, the administrative and “community and culture” areas are the only sectors that grow in real terms between the original 2016 budget and the 2017 budget.  As shown in the table below, in stark contrast to the government’s claimed priorities, the real cuts to health are 29%, to education are 18% and to transport are 35%. The sectors of key government priority are shaded in green.
png-sectoral-expenditure-2017-budget
Of course, key election elements are protected.  For example, K20m is still provided to fund the “free health” policy.  This represents less than 2% of the total health budget and is miniscule relative to the K315m cut in health in this 2017 budget.  The K20m “free health” policy is a smokescreen for the major cutbacks in health that are hurting church services and the level of assistance provided by health centres.  There is essentially no mechanism for distributing these funds down to rural clinics – so simply banning the collection of any fees means that these clinics are forced to operate without basic medicines or to close down altogether. “Free health” becomes “No health”.
Following are some examples that severely damage the credibility of the budget.
On the revenue side,  the budget assumes that an extra K16 million for the Internal Revenue Commission will magically produce a K400 million increase in revenue – all in 2017. Increased resourcing to the IRC should help increase revenues, but it has not helped over the last two years despite more and better paid staff.
  • The practicalities of needing to go through additional recruitment and training of new staff are ignored.  Such a pay-off figure of K1 extra in IRC resources producing an extra K25 in revenue is unrealistic – the figures used by tax agencies is more usually in the range of 5 or 8 to one over time, not 25 to one.
  • Company tax levels are expected to increase from an estimated K2,305m in 2016 to K3,322m in 2021. This 44% increase just does not seem credible – and it is a vital K1 billion assumption in closing the budget deficit hole.
  • Meanwhile, there are major revenue holes that appear in the budget that are very difficult to explain. In the 2016 revised budget, there is K725m shown as payments into the SWF from the “sale of shares” (Table 14 in Appendix). This is a surprise as there appears to public announcement of that sale having been completed.  In accounting terms, this is simply swapping on capital asset for cash – it should be shown as a ‘below the line’ transaction which should not affect the deficit.
  • Meanwhile, Kumul is paying no dividends through the SWF.  The SWF is effectively dead.
On the expenditure side, from 2017, there is a straight cut of 11 per cent in nominal terms, and over 30 per cent in real terms after allowing for inflation, in all sectors other than provinces.
  • So the claim is that debt servicing interest costs will fall from K1,480m in the revised 2016 budget down to K1,393m in 2017, and then down to K1,290m in 2019.
    • This is just not possible given growing nominal debt levels and the increasing costs of moving the debt portfolio to longer terms.
  • At least in the 2016 budget, were smaller deficits were predicted through to 2019, at least it had the sense to admit that interest costs were likely to rise to K1,553.6m by 2019 (compare the figures in Table 12 of both budgets).
  • Once again, this type of game, which produces K263m to close the budget deficit, appears to be deliberate and simply deceptive.
  • The flat cut of 11% to all sectors also indicates a severe lack of forward planning and budgeting systems.  Numbers appear to have changed to produce the desired reduction in the deficit and to control debt levels.
The financing for the budget deficits do not seem to be fully considered.
  • For example, Table 10 indicates for the 2016 revised budget K2,800m in extraordinary financing.  This is the value of the Sovereign Bond that was assumed in the 2016 but has not been delivered – and is unlikely to be delivered by the end of the year.
  • As noted above, it is also assumed that the PNG LNG shares are sold by the end of the year for K725m.
  • These are key sources of financing given the difficulties of accessing domestic bond markets. There may be a cash flow crunch around the corner if these assumptions do not occur.
Overall, it is important to map out a course to return to fiscal sustainability. The massive deficits entered into in 2013 and 2014 were a huge gamble, and the fall in commodity prices means the gamble did not pay off. However, fiscal policy must be credible. There are too many at best errors, but more likely deliberate manipulations in this budget to restore credibility in PNG’s economic management. And poor policy choices in other areas covered in other blogs such as the exchange rate and policies that are likely to undermine growth (SME, land, agriculture) means that the best option for fixing the budget, stronger rates of broad-based growth, is unlikely.

Popular posts from this blog

HIGHLANDS FRAUD F*CKS RUNNING GOVERNMENT AGENCY,,,

Image
A Fraudster and unqualified person has been shortlisted for NEC submission for the position of CEPA Managing Director. The candidate in question is Jude Tukulyia. His academic credentials are subject to scrutiny. Further investigation is required to verify the authenticity and legitimacy of his qualifications, particularly the reported diploma in accounting, Bachelor of Laws, MBA from Divine Word and UPNG respectively. It is very suspicious and unprofessional  when the Minister for Environment Conservation and Climate Change, Hon Simo Kilepa, wrote to UPNG Vice Chancellor asking to confirm Jude’s questioned education qualifications. This very due diligence work is the core responsibility of the Public Service Commission and Department of Personnel Management. What authority does the portfolio minister have to write to the Universities? Dumbfounding indeed if one asks. Ulterior motives written all over the letter. This amounts to  Questionable Academic Qualifications of Mr Tukulyia.    
Read more

AUGUSTINE MANO PNG'S PREMIER CORPORATE CROOK

Image
by  MICHAEL J. PASSINGAN In a significant setback for Mineral Resources Development Corporation (MRDC), the Supreme Court of Papua New Guinea has dismissed the company's appeal to stop criminal investigations into its dealings with landowner funds held in the Pacific Balance Fund (PBF). The court ruled that MRDC's appeal was an "abuse of process" and ordered the company to pay costs of the proceedings. MRDC, a unit holder in PBF, had taken legal action against the National Court's decision to dismiss its case, arguing that the court had no jurisdiction to hear the matter. However, the Supreme Court disagreed and held that MRDC's appeal was nothing more than an attempt to interfere with the police's criminal investigative process. The court found that MRDC had no authority to conducted its own investigation into the activities of the Melanesian Trustee Services Limited (MTSL), the fund manager of PBF, and that its actions were in violation of the Trust Deed
Read more

MARAPE & PAITA ABOUT TO SIGN AWAY PNG GOLD

Image
By: Andrew Arthur Prime Minister Hon. James Marape and his planning minister Reinbo Paita are the parties behind the theft of all Papua New Guinea’s gold for the next 100 years! They have given approval for the STATE of Papua New Guinea to sign away all gold rights to an Australian paper company in Refinery Holdings PTE LTD. First, they have done the deal with a paper company even before there is a LAW that says they have the right to do the deal. We see how the real manipulation works out. Marape and Paita now need to get the law passed by Parliament. The law is before the Parliament to set up Papua New Guinea’s first National Gold Corporation. The National Gold Corporation Bill first surfaced in 2012 but successive Government of Sir Michael Somare and Hon. Peter O’Neill, in their wisdom, had refused to pass this Bill as there have been some sinister motives and constitutional issues associated with the Bill. The new bill will allow Refinery Holdings LTD PTE to own 70% of the National
Read more

PNG, VERY RICH YET STILL A VERY VERY POOR COUNTRY

Image
by GARY MONDULAME Papua New Guinea (PNG), a nation blessed with abundant natural resources, continues to grapple with economic challenges that belie its potential wealth. The nation's economic narrative is a paradox—rich in resources yet burdened by poverty. The explanation for this paradox lies not only in economic mismanagement but also in deep-seated corruption that has permeated the political landscape since independence in 1975. Following its independence from Australia, PNG was entrusted to leaders who lacked a vision for a holistic national development. This absence of foresight is evident from the lack of long-term development plans that could have distributed the country’s wealth fairly across all regions and communities. Successive governments failed to establish foundational strategies such as building satellite townships or creating robust rural housing schemes. Instead, they resorted to short-term, reactive measures that did not foster sustainable growth. The nascent l
Read more

BLIND LEADING THE BLIND, WHY THE PNG ECONOMY STILL SUCKS

Image
Elizabeth Genia, Acting Governor Bank of PNG (BPNG) by MICHAEL JOSEPH PASSINGAN The economy of Papua New Guinea (PNG) is at a crucial juncture. Despite some signs of recovery, the country faces several structural challenges that continue to impede its economic progress. The March 2024 Monetary Policy Statement from the Bank of Papua New Guinea sheds light on these issues, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape and the policy responses being implemented to navigate through these turbulent times. In 2023, PNG's economy grew by a modest 1.4%, a significant slowdown from the 5.2% growth witnessed in 2022. This tepid growth is largely attributed to delays in major projects and ongoing economic issues that have not been fully resolved. The anticipated growth for 2024 is around 3.0%, buoyed by the resumption of production at the Porgera gold mine. While this marks an improvement, it remains subdued compared to the potential of this resource-rich nation. One of the mo
Read more

James Marape's Missteps Openly Exposed at Australian Forum

Image
by  MICHAEL J. PASSINGAN  In a recent event that highlighted the complexities of international diplomacy and governance, Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister, James Marape, faced a challenging situation during his appearance at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia. The Lowy Institute, known for its role as an independent think tank focusing on international policy, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, provided a platform for a candid assessment of Marape's governance. Following his formal address, Marape engaged in a dialogue with Dr. Michael Fullilove AM, the Executive Director of the Institute. Dr. Fullilove, a respected figure in public and international policy, scrutinized Marape's past promises and statements, contrasting them with the current state of affairs in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The discussion took a critical turn as Dr. Fullilove revisited Marape's 2019 speech at the same venue, where Marape had outlined his vision for PNG in a speech titled “A New Boo
Read more

A Call for Local Ownership and Fairness

Image
by JUSTIN PARKER In recent discussions surrounding the establishment of a gold refinery in Papua New Guinea (PNG), concerns have been raised regarding various aspects of the proposed project. Spearheaded by foreign investors, the initiative has sparked debates over ownership, exclusivity, tax concessions, underwriting, management rights, control over currency, legal protections, and historical failures. These concerns, if unaddressed, could potentially undermine the interests of PNG and its people, particularly the hardworking alluvial miners who form the backbone of the nation's mining sector. At the heart of the issue lies the question of ownership. The proposed ownership structure, favoring foreign investors with a substantial 70% stake, raises eyebrows, especially considering PNG's past experiences with failed ventures like seabed mining. Instead of ceding majority control to foreign entities, many argue that PNG should assert full ownership over the refinery. With the coun
Read more