2017 NGE Outcome Prediction

by JAMES KAPILI

1. PNC - 28

2. NA - 15

3. Pangu - 12

4. PPP - 7

5. PNGP - 5

6. THE - 4

7. PNGNP - 4

8. URP - 3

9. CRP - 3

10. SDP - 2

11. Other Parties - 4

12. Independents- 24

Total: 111

(B) PNC Party and Coalition will be asked to form Government.

Call for Government by GG since PNC has the numbers, the GG will ask PNC to form Government. PNC will have about 28. About 10 Independents will join adding to 38. Several smaller Parties will join adding to just over 40 (42-44). They need 56 MPs, so will be depleted by at least 12.

(C) NA/Pangu and other Coalition: Grand Alliance.

They will muster 60+ MPs intact. Goroka and Kokopo teams will combine. They will nominate their Speaker and Deputy. They will fly into Pom on the 11th hour for the 10th Parliament.

(E) Election of Speaker.

When the 10th Parliament meets, the first order of business will be to elect the Speaker. The Grand Alliance Group will nominate their candidate and using the numerical strength, they will be successful. The Speaker-elect will take his seat, say a few words and adjourn Parliament to the afternoon, and to return to elect the PM.

(F) Election of the Prime Minister.

The Speaker will call for nomination for the position of the Prime Minister. PNC team will nominate their nominee (Peter O'Neil). The Grand Alliance will also nominate their candidate. MPs will vote as per Parliamentary Standing Order. The numerical strength of Grand Alliance Team, and the fact that the Speaker is "their" man, it will go in their favour. Therefore, a new PM will originate from the Grand Alliance Team.

(G) Cross-over of MPs.

It is most likely that due to the numerical strength, fractions of the PNC-led coalition may cross over during the voting of PM. Eventually, the number of that side may get smaller.

(H) Court of Disputed Returns

The number of court cases will be mind blogling. The high profile cases will be:
- Ialibu Pangia
- Hela Regional
- NCD Regional
- Tari Pori
- Kandep Open

Let us wait and see what transpires.

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