PNGBLOGS

by PAUL FLANAGAN PNG is a high-taxing and very high-spending country relative to its Asia Pacific peers . Most of any adjustment to the fiscal balance should therefore occur on the expenditure side. PNG is planning to do this with a drop in the expenditure to GDP ratio from the highest level ever, of 38.1% in 2013, to its lowest level ever, of 24.6% in 2020. PNG has never attempted such a fiscal consolidation – not even to recover from the fiscal crises of the 1990s. Putting this into an international perspective, PNG is seeking to adjust government expenditure by 13.5% of the economy. This is more than double the government expenditure reductions undertaken by  Greece  of 6.3% (from 51.4% of GDP in 2010 to 45.1% of GDP in 2015). Of course, PNG is not facing a Greek-style fiscal crisis (at the start of its crisis Greece had a broadly similar deficit of 11%, but a much higher public debt level of 170% of GDP), but it is planning a similar or more draconian response. PNG is seekin

by PAUL FLANAGAN   Papua New Guinea’s budget , released on 3 November and rushed through Parliament the same day, could have been so much better. Given the country’s record deficit levels, fiscal consolidation was vital even before the fall in international commodity prices. However, the proposed expenditure cuts do not match the government’s stated priorities of protecting health, education and infrastructure. They are also excessive – even more than those imposed on Greece as part of its structural adjustment program. Further, the budget suffers from factual errors relating to GDP and the external accounts, a lack of revenue effort, and inadequate transparency. This is the first of two posts providing a detailed analysis of the 2016 PNG Budget. GDP errors The budget makes a serious error in calculating PNG’s nominal GDP – and this affects all the key ratios and messaging from the budget. The nominal GDP budget estimates assume there has been no fall in LNG

by PAULUS KANAMBO Peter O’Steal, the biggest liar, thief and konman in PNG history, has been exposed again by new facts revealed about the 2016 Budget. He said the 2016 money plan was “a conservative budget that carefully manages spending to ensure essential services are delivered to the people. Core services for our grassroots including school fees and access to healthcare will continue to be properly funded. “Our law and order programs will continue with more funding for police, the courts and correctional services. “Funding for critical infrastructure will be maintained in order to provide ongoing stimulus for business and for job creation.” Each and every one of these statements by O’Steal is a lie, as shown by the latest economic research by the prestigious Lowy Institute in Sydney. THE FACTS ABOUT PETER O’STEAL’S LIES Core services for grassroots have in fact been savagely cut because of O’Steal’s corruption, waste and mismanagement. Education sp

by JACK KUMAN Prime Minister Peter O’Neill is telling us that the economy and government finances are in good condition. But the official numbers from Treasury and the Bank of Papua New Guinea tell a different story. They tell us that Papua New Guinea is rushing towards an economic and financial disaster. The numbers do not lie, unlike the Prime Minister. Since he grabbed power in mid-2011, the economy and government finances have got worse and worse until today the Government is virtually bankrupt. Now the Prime Minister and his partners in crime have resorted to stealing from State-Owned Enterprises to try to prevent a complete financial crash. They have demanded hundreds of millions of kina, including from LNG landowners’ funds held in NPCP and reserve and operating cash from National Fisheries Authority and MVIL. This is in addition to the hundreds of millions of kina already drained from SOEs last year and earlier this year in fake “dividends”. O’Neill’s corru

by PAUL FLANAGAN   The PNG Government released its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook ( MYEFO ) on Monday – the update on the 2015 budget. The estimated budget deficit for 2015 blows out from an already high budgeted 4.4% of GDP to 9.4%. This would be the highest in PNG’s history. Public debt levels are expected to skyrocket from the earlier estimate of 27.8% of GDP to 41.3%. In Australia, such a rapid change in the estimated fiscal position would go well beyond being termed “a budget crisis”. PNG’s official figures are much worse than at the time of PNG’s last economic crisis at the end of the 1990s (see graph below). PNG expenditure and revenues as a share of GDP – with updated figures from 2015 MYEFO Note: The gap between the lines indicates the size of the government deficit or surplus. Both lines exclude grants (aid). The drivers for the rapid deterioration in PNG’s fiscal situation are the fall in international commodity prices, a growth slow down as well