PNG’S BUDGET DEFICIT BLOW-OUT OF K628 MILLION
by PAUL FLANAGAN This is the third and final posting on PNG’s 2016 IMF Article IV report. The two previous posts have focused on PNG’s growth rate being much lower than claimed by the O’Neill government and PNG’s weak external position. The focus of this blog is on fiscal and monetary policy. The IMF report estimates the 2016 budget deficit will be K628 million greater than estimated by the government (so reaching 4.4% of GDP), and this feeds into greater debt levels. Government debt at the end of 2016 is estimated to be K967.3 million greater than stated by the government (and this does not include build-ups in off-budget debt such as the K3 billion in borrowings for Oil Search shares). While commending the government for its actions in the 2016 Supplementary Budget and “prudent” 2017 budget, there are concerns about where expenditure cuts have been made, the lack of effort on raising revenues (in particular from the resource sector), and the need to improv