PNGBLOGS

BY A SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT IN SINGAPORE Part 1 – How Peter O’Neill and Peter Botten cost Papua New Guinea at least K1 billion The Oil Search Annual General Meeting in Port Moresby earlier this year confirmed that the company is acutely aware of the extent of corruption in the Papua New Guinea government of Peter O’Neill. Oil Search executives privately commented to attendees after the AGM closed that "... everything here in PNG is corrupt …" “… the government is so corrupt …”, "… PNG has a lot of corruption issues …" and others in similar vein. The cost of O’Neill Government corruption is high, estimated to be several billion kina a year. Now the contribution of Oil Search’s own questionable dealings with the O’Neill Government has come under public scrutiny. Late last month stockmarket trading announcements revealed that the nation has lost at least K1 billion in an illegal sweetheart deal organised in secret between Prime Minister O’Neill and O

by PAUL FLANAGAN The press release from the latest mission of the world’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) – see here – highlights the difficult road ahead for PNG in dealing with recent years of bad luck and economic mismanagement. Challenges On the fiscal front, the IMF considers that the government will fail in the Supplementary Budget to bring the 2017 budget deficit back to the target of 2.5% of GDP. Rather, it estimates the deficit will be “a little over 3%” – so a gap of some K370 million relative to the 100-day target. The goal to reduce the debt to GDP ratio back to the legislated level of 30% as part of the 2017 Supplementary Budget is also recognized as infeasible. Instead, the suggestion is a medium-term objective of moving to a balanced budget by 2020 (and GDP growth will work to reduce the ratio). So the first two targets in new Treasurer Abel’s 100-day plan are likely to fail. Expected growth is also wound back from the 2.7% estimate in 2017 down to 2.4%.

by  IVAN KEAS CPA Introduction PNG is a growing economy in market and business and it’s not limited in its investment capacity. It is open and wide that can efficiently allocate and distribute investment resource within its system. The West Minister Government and the Indigenous values have resembled this attributable development trait that complements the structure to adapt well with relative ease and it’s been appreciated as an integrated enabling cross-cutting culture that posses commercial and economic respect. The values have held the tenets of our democracy and loyalty to our heritage that affirms Human to be a distinguishable creature. We hold this truth as it stood the test of time in our Constitution. Papua New Guineas do not have any problem with its People, System, and Economy. She is young, cute, virgin, wealthy, rich, energetic, adventurous and attractive because of its beauty and its people. Notably, PNG Economy is an interdependent economy and majorly generates

by PAUL FLANAGAN Following are three key questions which potential investors should be seeking answers for at the PNG Investment Conference being held in Sydney on 7 and 8 September. First, what are my peers doing? While a good business investor will be open to finding a niche market with great potential, it is relevant to know what their investment peers are doing. There was a rather disingenuous Bloomberg article last week titled “Australia Would Rather Invest in Papua New Guinea Than in China” – see here. A more comprehensive set of figures, based on total Australian investment in these countries is shown in the graph below.   [Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue 5320 Table 5 issued 10 May 2017.] Three key elements.  First, one should consider more than just direct investment.  This dominates the PNG picture but is a much, much smaller element than in China where investment options are much more diversified. Second, investments in Hong Kong are also rele

by PAUL FLANAGAN PNG’s new Treasurer and DPM, Charles Abel, has released the promised 100 Day Economic Stimulus Plan (see  here ). Overall, there are some positives in the plan. But politics is already circumscribing necessary actions to get PNG back onto the right economic path. Starting with the positives, even having a 25 point plan is a useful statement that the new government recognises PNG’s economic challenges. The five elements of the plan are appropriate. There is a focus on raising revenues as well as fiscal discipline. Population policy is given priority.  The plan announces the suspension and review of some scary micro-economic policies in areas such as land, agriculture, bio-security and mining. Some politically brave action is foreshadowed to at least temporarily reduce politicians’ discretionary electorate spending (PSIPs and DSIPs). There seems a commitment to on-going sensible strategic budgetary and planning processes. There is no mention of the absurd “gold bu

by CYRIL GARE One of the greatest challenges for our new first time politicians is to acquaint themselves with and understand the country’s foreign policy among others. It is even challenging for a first-time Minister. In many democracies in the world, a first-time politician does not become a Minister immediately. The reason is obvious. He or she must first understudy and learn the trade skills of the game before taking on a ministerial responsibility in Government. Last week, we boasted about the launch of PNG’s first ever National Trade Policy (NTP). In time, many Papua New Guineans including myself will be able to read and understand the NTP from an available copy. For now, let’s just deduce from information provided in media reports that the NTP now “gives an upper hand to negotiate trade with its partners”. In essence, trade involves supply and demand; i) we supply others with what they do not have, and ii) in reciprocate buy from them what we do not have such as medicine an