PNGBLOGS

by WILSON TALAG “For a small country whose economy is heavily dependent on volatile commodity prices to  borrow heavily hoping that commodity prices will remain high is the pinnacle of stupidity.” Smart investors are not anywhere as dumb as the average Papua New Guinean citizen whenever  Prime Minister Peter O’Neill speaks.   O’Neill can utter complete lies about the PNG economy and government budget to the public and people will take his words at face value.  Foreign investors and the foreign owned private sector in PNG make good money because they are not so gullible.  They check things out and what they have learnt is disturbing.  The Prime Minister himself does not understand this reality and continues to present only information he wants the investors to hear.  But the investors are wise to his tricks and overall investor confidence in PNG has plummeted close to nil if the side comments of investors are to be taken at face value.    Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minist

by PAUL FLANAGAN PNG’s government must be embarrassed by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assessment of its economic performance. In an extraordinary step, and the first time in PNG’s 41 year history of Independence, the PNG government has refused to release the IMF’s 2016 summary of the PNG economy. 98% of countries agreed to release this information in 2015 – so the PNG government has moved to the bottom 2% of governments when it comes to economic transparency. In the IMF’s final press release (see here) before Christmas (generally seen as a good time to bury bad news), the International Monetary Fund indicated that “The [PNG] authorities need more time to consider the publication of the staff report and the related press release.” This appears to be polite IMF diplomatic speak for the PNG government not wanting to release the information. The IMF mission visited in mid-2016. An early draft asking for PNG government comments would have been provided about two months ago

by LOWEY INSTITUTE The 2016 Budget was  one of emergency  for Papua New Guinea. Adjusting to a 20% collapse in revenue caused by plummeting commodity prices and an economic slow-down, the government has implemented expenditure cuts  that are harsher  than those contained in Greece’s austerity package. In many ways, the 2016 Budget was the one PNG had to have. While commentators, including myself, have questioned the severity and the way in which cuts have been made, all agree the government could not keep spending at the pace it has been given the collapse in revenue and rapid increases in public debt. But will expenditure actually slow? And what is the true level of public debt in PNG? We can shed some light on these questions by focusing on a specific, big-ticket item of expenditure: PNG’s hosting of the APEC leaders’ meeting in 2018. Port Moresby is going through a massive transformation in preparation for this event, driven by a confusing mixture of public, private and

by MICHAEL.J PASSINGAN Last month Prime Minister Peter O’Neill publicly stated that the nation’s annual GDP growth rate is 9.2 percent. He said Papua New Guinea’s growth rate is the envy of many world economies – “9.2% is miles better  than the global average, which is about 3 percent or less”. That was untrue when he said it, and the Prime Minister knew it to be untrue. The growth rate for the year, according to the 2016 Budget, was 4.2 percent. But in fact PNG’s GDP growth rate at the time Mr O’Neill lied to the people was less than 4.2 percent. Confirmation of that comes with the release yesterday of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. That authoritative document estimates PNG’s annual growth rate this year is 3.1%. This is very bad news for Papua New Guineans. It puts PNG’s GDP growth amongst the lowest in the world. But the accompanying graph shows that the situation is even worse than that. Under the corrupt, reckless and wasteful PNC Regime of Peter O’Neill, national

PNGBLOGS EXCLUSIVE PNG IS GONE AS A SOVEREIGN NATION IN JUNE IF NOTHING IS DONE TO REVERSE THE LOAN TAKEN BY O'NEILL GOVERNMENT TO BUY OSL SHARES. If the PNG Government does not find USD 1.5 Billion by 13th June, 2016, UBS will ask the government to Appoint a Receiver Manager for the Oil Search shares, the Receiver Manager will manager the Escrow account in Singapore. by June UBS will declare PNG bankrupt. This frightening revelation was revealed to PNGBLOGS by Government Insider working with the Department of Prime Minister and NEC who has sighted the original deed. The Principal Maturity date for the UBS loan was 13th March 2016.The Papua New Guinea Government has now K3.2 billion to pay UBS. We are in the grace period but that ends on the 13th June, 2016. Peter O'Neil signed with JP Morgan for refinancing turnaround time two weeks has lapsed. The World Bank, IMF, ADB and AusAid have already started painting bad picture about Peter O'Neil. He is an economi

by MICHAEL J. PASSINGAN On 21 March, at the PNC fund-raising – also known as the greatest gathering of thieves on earth – the Prime Minister boasted about PNG having an annual GDP growth rate of 9.2%. He said Papua New Guinea’s growth rate is the envy of many world economies – “9.2% is miles better than the global average, which is about 3% or less”.  LIES LIES LIES!  PNG’s annual GDP growth rate is 4.3%, according to the 2016 Budget papers, Volume 1, Table 1, page 107. Even worse, Treasury predicts annual GDP growth to fall to less than 3% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, according to the 2016 Budget papers, Volume 1, Chart 13 page 12.  This chart also demonstrates how O’Neill has wrecked the non-mining sectors – mainly agriculture, on which 90% of the people depend for their livelihood. His mad policies and his greed have reduced non-mining GDP growth from a high of 12% per annum in 2011 to about 3% per annum now.  MORE LIES!  He also told his dinner companions - PNC konman cr

by MICHAEL JOSEPH PASSINGAN On 17 March PNG Blogs revealed that Peter O’Neill has secretly begged the World Bank for a loan of up to K1 billion. On 22 March we revealed that international agencies are about to downgrade Papua New Guinea’s credit rating once again – after already being downgraded late last year. Now some good news – the economy and national finances have been damaged so badly by O’Neill’s reckless borrowing and wasteful spending that his proposed $US1 billion sovereign bond issue is dead - D.E.A.D. This is good news because it means the nation’s indebtedness will not increase by $US1 billion in the immediate future. It means the long-suffering people will not have more debt to repay each year. IT MEANS THERE WON’T BE $US1 BILLION FOR O’NEILL TO STEAL AND WASTE The failure of the bond issue proves that international money markets won’t lend a toea to O’Neill’s corrupt regime unless it is at unaffordable penalty interest rates. Such unaffordable interest

by MICHAEL JOSEPH PASSINGAN The foreign banking system is bringing more bad news for Papua New Guineans suffering under the corruption, waste and reckless financial and economic management of the O’Neill Regime. The International Monetary Fund, an arm of the World Bank, is lending almost K1 billion so commercial banks – BSP plus the two main foreign-owned banks ANZ and Westpac – can prop up the bankrupt government of Peter O’Neill. The fact that the IMF is a lender of last resort to failed economies illustrates exactly how bad the nation’s economic and financial problems are. The fact that the O’Neill Regime and the Bank of Papua New Guinea are keeping this loan secret adds to the fears that is a very bad deal for Papua New Guinea. The K1 billion, to be managed by the central bank, will allow the commercial banks to continue to buy government investments such as Treasury Bills, Inscribed Stock and Central Bank Bills, and possibly lend more money to State-Owned Enterprises.

by JACK NAIME Another independent international assessment of Papua New Guinea’s financial management has contradicted the spin and deception by Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, Treasury Secretary Daire Vele and the mainstream media led by the Post-Courier. The report, Poor Financial Management in PNG: Can It Be Turned Around? Is available here: http://devpolicy.org/pngs-financial-management-can-it-be-turned-around-20160112/ . It was written by PFMConnect, a respected international consultancy specialising in developing country financial management. The report slams the O’Neill Government’s financial management and reinforces the criticism of other independent international observers who have exposed the corruption, incompetence and waste that is rife under Peter O’Neill and Daire Vele. Papua New Guinea ranks 21st out of the 24 assessments of Public Financial Management conducted by the IMF last year, according to the report. Most alarming is the fact that under Mr O’N

by PAUL FLANAGAN PNG is a high-taxing and very high-spending country relative to its Asia Pacific peers . Most of any adjustment to the fiscal balance should therefore occur on the expenditure side. PNG is planning to do this with a drop in the expenditure to GDP ratio from the highest level ever, of 38.1% in 2013, to its lowest level ever, of 24.6% in 2020. PNG has never attempted such a fiscal consolidation – not even to recover from the fiscal crises of the 1990s. Putting this into an international perspective, PNG is seeking to adjust government expenditure by 13.5% of the economy. This is more than double the government expenditure reductions undertaken by  Greece  of 6.3% (from 51.4% of GDP in 2010 to 45.1% of GDP in 2015). Of course, PNG is not facing a Greek-style fiscal crisis (at the start of its crisis Greece had a broadly similar deficit of 11%, but a much higher public debt level of 170% of GDP), but it is planning a similar or more draconian response. PNG is seekin