PNGBLOGS

by PAUL FLANAGAN PNG’s government must be embarrassed by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assessment of its economic performance. In an extraordinary step, and the first time in PNG’s 41 year history of Independence, the PNG government has refused to release the IMF’s 2016 summary of the PNG economy. 98% of countries agreed to release this information in 2015 – so the PNG government has moved to the bottom 2% of governments when it comes to economic transparency. In the IMF’s final press release (see here) before Christmas (generally seen as a good time to bury bad news), the International Monetary Fund indicated that “The [PNG] authorities need more time to consider the publication of the staff report and the related press release.” This appears to be polite IMF diplomatic speak for the PNG government not wanting to release the information. The IMF mission visited in mid-2016. An early draft asking for PNG government comments would have been provided about two months ago

by P AUL FLANAGAN Executive Summary The 2017 Budget was a missed opportunity for restoring credibility in the Government’s economic management. Vastly different measures for GDP are included throughout the same Budget document – not a good look for international investors and credit rating agencies LNG values are assumed to increase in the 2017 Budget by 16% while recent World Bank forecasts indicate a fall of 35%. Using official BPNG figures, and updating them for the lower growth forecasts in the 2017 budget, a recession is confirmed: (using the measure most relevant for measuring progress on PNG’s living standards) real non-resource GDP per capita is expected to fall from K2,479 in 2013 to K2,282 in 201 7 this is a fall of 8% in average living standards in PNG. According to official estimates from Treasury and BPNG, it will now take until past 2023 to get back to 2013 standards of living (see graph below).  PNG is officially facing another lost decad

by SAM BASIL MP, Deputy Opposition Leader The Opposition have always been critical of how Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) economy has been financially mismanaged by the O’Neill government and we still believe this, when the 2015 Pacific Games has placed a further financial burden on PNG’s economy. As Deputy Opposition Leader, I do not question that all those associated with the 2015 Pacific Games, held here in PNG, should be acknowledged for a successful event given the short time span to organise; credit must be given to all these professionals, volunteers and sponsors for their commitment and determination. But the reality check needs to occur when the Pacific Games have left PNG’s shores and we are reminded about the recession we are currently in, and the loans that the O’Neill government have exposed PNG to; both issues will be strongly denied by the O’Neill government through their media propaganda announcements. What the O’Neill government won’t tell you, is that most major s