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Showing posts with the label HYPERINFLATION

FRIGHTENING GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE IN 8 KEY AREAS OF THE ECONOMY

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NATIONAL BUDGET SPOOKS PRIVATE BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT IN PNG

byWILSON TALAG Economist Paul Flanagan's recent remarks that appeared in PNG Blogs and elsewhere highlight 8 key areas of what looks to be looming financial disaster.  Mr Flanagan's enlightening report is the basis for this discussion and why the performance of each one of the key areas has started to  spook business and investors.  The seriousness of PNG’s current financial situation is becoming very clear.   A little over a week ago the government came very close to failing to come up with the year end public servant pay.  This near disaster occurred despite supplementary budgets designed to avoid such unexpected money shortages.   Another red flag flying high and warning that behind the scenes, PNG's finances are rapidly deteriorating under the O'Neill government.

The 8 key areas of concern are (1) Government lies over the actual size and growth of the PNG economy, (2) Discrepancies  over GDP economic gro…

SLIPPERY SLOPE, PNG EFFECTIVELY PRINTING MONEY TO FUND DEFICIT BUDGET - HYPERINFLATION ANYONE?

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by PAUL FLANAGAN

In an article for the ANU’s Development Policy Centre eighteen months ago (see here), I congratulated PNG’s central bank (BPNG) for its very constructive stance in stopping its effective printing of money to fund the government’s budget deficit. I noted how this reflected positively on the independence of BPNG, an independence built into its charter by Sir Mekere Morauta (PNG’s former Prime Minister) and Sir Wilson Kamit (PNG’s central bank governor from 1999 to 2009) in response to PNG’s last major economic crisis in the late 1990s.

Unfortunately, this independent role appears to have been reversed from the start of this year. Based on the latest Quarterly Economic Bulletin released on 18 November 2016 and its accompanying tables (esp Table 2-3 for BPNG’s assets sheet see here) PNG appears to have returned to a very slippery slope of effectively printing money by back-stopping auctions in government securities – a practice initially warned about in September 2014 (see