PNGBLOGS

by PAUL FLANAGAN Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Charles Abel’s credibility was on the line. Did he actually deliver on the 100 Day Plan promised reduction in PNG’s 2017 budget deficit from unsustainable levels? The answer is almost certainly “no”. The actual 2017 budget deficit is conservatively estimated at over K1 billion larger than claimed – largely due to not paying bills or GST refunds. The conservative estimate would lift the size of the 2017 Budget deficit from 2.4% to just under 4% of GDP. However, the upper bound deficit estimate is K2 billion larger – or more than double – the K1.8 billion budget deficit reported in the 2017 FBO. Even a 4% outcome would have better than the budget deficits of 2014 to 2016. However, the reductions were made in the wrong way. Expenditure was cut entirely in areas key for PNG’s future growth and concessional loan projects were delayed. Even using FBO figures, the blow-out in operating expenditures entirely consumed the claimed incre

by PAUL FLANAGAN This is the third and final posting on PNG’s 2016 IMF Article IV report.  The two previous posts have focused on PNG’s growth rate being much lower than claimed by the O’Neill government and PNG’s weak external position. The focus of this blog is on fiscal and monetary policy. The IMF report estimates the 2016 budget deficit will be K628 million greater than estimated by the government (so reaching 4.4% of GDP), and this feeds into greater debt levels. Government debt at the end of 2016 is estimated to be K967.3 million greater than stated by the government (and this does not include build-ups in off-budget debt such as the K3 billion in borrowings for Oil Search shares). While commending the government for its actions in the 2016 Supplementary Budget and “prudent” 2017 budget, there are concerns about where expenditure cuts have been made, the lack of effort on raising revenues (in particular from the resource sector), and the need to improv