Posts

Showing posts with the label psip

PNG – Pathways from Potential Crisis

Image
by PAUL FLANAGAN Potential crisis – what does this mean? • 3 types of crisis observed in countries through time (talk will focus on first, and some comments on second) • Fiscal crisis (PNG – first and second 1990s crises) • Government runs out of money to pay its bills. • Potentially manifested by shortage of government cash, ‘out of the ordinary’ borrowings, printing money, much higher government security interest rates. • External crisis (PNG – first and second 1990s crises) • Running out of foreign currency to pay bills (either private or more particularly government) • Potentially manifested by various forms of exchange rate controls, tariffs and quotas, foreign currency borrowings. • Muddling down crisis (more African and South American examples) • Pattern of continuing poor decision making undermining sustainable growth. • Medium to long-term timeframe – a slow bubbling crisis that may extend over a decade. • Potentially manifested by pattern of poor eco