PNG the next Fiji? Constitutional crisis looms

BY ILYA GRIDNEFF

AAP - PNG FACES a constitutional crisis and possible civil incursions over a $16 billion gas project, while the government struggles to pass vital legislation before the 2012 national elections.

Commentators are troubled that PNG's government appears to exhibit uncomfortable parallels with Fiji, as constitutional amendments mount up with time running out before the general elections. There are concerns disgruntled Highland villagers surrounding the ExxonMobil liquefied natural gas (LNG) project could take up arms against the government if it fails to create two promised provinces. A report by Dr Jim McPherson, a senior PNG public servant of over 20 years, highlights the litany of constitutional amendments needed before elections and the potential for violence. "Shortage of time could lead to corrupt manipulation of electoral rolls and increased political tensions, even unrest in provinces," Dr McPherson said. "PNG could quite possibly face a major constitutional crisis like (that) seen in Fiji or faces similar violent scenes to what happened in the Solomon Islands."

At the heart of the problem is PNG's National Alliance-led government, which has overseen prolonged economic growth and political stability and is now at the end of its second five-year term. Last year the government set about creating two new provinces, Hela and Jiwaka, in the LNG centre of the Southern Highlands, and also in neighbouring Western Highlands. And as PNG ramps up the LNG project - touted as the saviour of the resource-rich but development-poor nation - there are fears that already sporadic violence could intensify, with cashed-up and angry resource owners buying more high powered weaponry.

"If this is not handled with care, a corrupt election in Hela which had no legitimacy with the people of Hela, could spark an explosion felt across the country," Dr McPherson said. Critics who spoke to AAP accused Prime Minister Michael Somare's government of overburdening the legislative timetable. Even PNG's Chamber of Mining and Petroleum raised concerns in a recent industry newsletter. Creating two new provinces means adjusting electoral boundaries that have remained unchanged since PNG gained independence from Australian administration in 1975. While Australian politicians have no say in whether their electorate gets squeezed because of population shifts, PNG politicians have succeeded in blocking all proposed boundary changes for more than 33 years. "Electoral boundaries have not changed at all, I would say variation in the size of voters to the districts, according to the last national census, is up to 500 per cent," Dr McPherson said.

"If the next Boundary Commission recommendations are not accepted before the election, questions will be raised about the constitutional status of the next parliament." Paul Barker, director of PNG's think tank the Institute of National Affairs, says electoral boundaries must be properly defined otherwise existing social and ethnic problems will multiply. "PNG has been dangerously moving towards supposedly elected leaders simply controlling funds and not representing the people," Mr Barker said.

"We need to improve the dreadful state of infrastructure, service delivery and accountability in this country, not just establish new lairs or units of ineffective administration." To make matters even more confusing, another proposed government bill introduces 22 women-only seats, one for each province. With little national debate, this could increase PNG's parliament from 109 members to at least 133, taking in the two new provinces. The PNG government last year announced this well-intentioned plan to give women better parliamentary representation, but in part also to honour the legacy of PNG's only female MP, retiring Australian-born Community Services Minister Dame Carol Kidu.

However, the Somare government in its previous term amended legislation to abolish provinces. Now the current Somare government wants to make more provinces, including women-only provincial members. These contradictions help explain in part why PNG is sometime referred to as the "land of the unexpected" and also highlight the shambolic nature of its nascent democracy. Deputy Prime Minister Sir Puka Temu told AAP he was "optimistic but also concerned". The government will retain provincial seats and plans to meet with key stakeholders to resolve these concerns, he said. "The only challenge is whether by July this year, we have the numbers on the floor of parliament to pass these important constitutional amendments."

The PNG cabinet has set up a team to prepare Hela's administration, with a similar Jiwaka team to be discussed and then established in May. "I think we are on target," Sir Puka said. But a range of issues outside the government's control are stacking up. Constitutional amendments require a vote of "absolute majority", which is a tough slog considering consensus is rarely achieved, sometimes even on popular issues in PNG's fractured and unpredictable politics. Also, the government last year sat for only 29 of the prescribed 63 days.

This year, a similar pattern of repeated parliament adjournments has been a government strategy to avoid a vote of no-confidence that emerged from their own frustrated backbench. In addition, PNG plans a census in July this year, the first since 2000. By conservative estimates the census will be finished and compiled by early 2011. Whether PNG's institutions can then update the 2012 electoral rolls with the new data is highly questionable. Dr Alphonse Gelu of PNG's National Research Institute fears the government could rush through crucial changes that could cause more trouble down the track.

"When are they going to give the legal effect to the administrative set-up of those two new provinces?" he asked. "When are they going to draw the boundaries? "It's not a simple thing for creation of a new province. Come 2012, there will be major problems and we will have to go back to the drawing board."