Mexico and Papua New Guinea floats make or break climate proposal

TIMES OF INDIA

Mexico and Papua New Guinea have come up with a proposal that could either end the continuing impasse at the UN climate talks or break down negotiations completely. The two countries have proposed that instead of working by unanimity, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change should decide on major issues by a simple majority.

At present, the gathering of 195 countries cannot take a decision without consensus. Till recently, consensus meant unanimity. But at the last big meeting in Cancun in 2010, the host Mexico dramatically altered that by over-ruling a very vocal Bolivia and finalized the 'Cancun agreements'.

The Cancun agreements operationalised the controversial Copenhagen Accord, which could not be adopted earlier as a UN decision because some countries had opposed the move. Bolivia had said the Cancun agreements were leading to a regime that would not stop climate change but be a fig leaf for all. The Copenhagen accord had remained just a political statement despite the best efforts of developed countries.

The new, controversial proposal from Mexico, which continues to head the talks till South Africa takes over at the end of the year, could completely alter the geo-political games at the UN negotiations where each country, regardless of size and power, holds veto and has one vote.

At Cancun, when Bolivia objected, many countries including India had respected its objections but refused to join battle against the alteration of rules.

Several negotiators from developing countries at the ongoing talks told TOI that it was a dangerous proposal that could alter the balance in ways one could not even predict. "At Bali in 2009, a small country was able to stand up to the US and shame it into agreeing to the decisions simply because it had the moral space as well as the veto. In a majority system, a coterie of the powerful could overrun the interest of small countries. Alignments could change dramatically," a negotiator for a Latin American country told TOI from Bonn. India's views on the proposal could not be ascertained.

UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres, however, said a change in rules may be rather difficult. The dramatic change will require consensus to begin with, Figueres said. "Yes, a system that has voting would perhaps be more time efficient but in order to go to voting, we would have to have consensus... So that tells you what the prospects are," she said.

Bolivia, on the other hand, has announced that it is looking at legal options of challenging the adoption of Cancun agreements in absence of unanimity and is firmly opposed to any proposal which would make the exception a rule.

The negotiating games at UN talks are always filled with a lot of back room maneuvering with groups trying to breach each other's defences with carrots and sticks. Realignment of powerful countries – such as that of the BASIC – Brazil, South Africa, China and India -- with the US that left EU frustrated two years ago is matched by the 'moral weight' that smaller and more vulnerable nations hold along with their veto power.

The US had earlier expressed frustration at the pace of the UN talks but it had instead used forums outside the official talks – such as the Major Economies Forum and the G8+ groupings – to stitch coalitions of the willing.

So far, the G77 developing countries have found great advantage in sticking together on larger issues and using the power of consensus in its favour, though the 130-plus country group itself has had several fractious fights within.