PNGBLOGS

NATIONAL BUDGET SPOOKS PRIVATE BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT IN PNG   by WILSON TALAG Economist Paul Flanagan's recent remarks that appeared in PNG Blogs and elsewhere highlight 8 key areas of what looks to be looming financial disaster.  Mr Flanagan's enlightening report is the basis for this discussion and why the performance of each one of the key areas has started to  spook business and investors.  The seriousness of PNG’s current financial situation is becoming very clear.   A little over a week ago the government came very close to failing to come up with the year end public servant pay.  This near disaster occurred despite supplementary budgets designed to avoid such unexpected money shortages.   Another red flag flying high and warning that behind the scenes, PNG's finances are rapidly deteriorating under the O'Neill government. The 8 key areas of concern are (1) Government lies over the actual size and growth of the PNG economy, (2) Discrepancies  ove

by WILSON TALAG “For a small country whose economy is heavily dependent on volatile commodity prices to  borrow heavily hoping that commodity prices will remain high is the pinnacle of stupidity.” Smart investors are not anywhere as dumb as the average Papua New Guinean citizen whenever  Prime Minister Peter O’Neill speaks.   O’Neill can utter complete lies about the PNG economy and government budget to the public and people will take his words at face value.  Foreign investors and the foreign owned private sector in PNG make good money because they are not so gullible.  They check things out and what they have learnt is disturbing.  The Prime Minister himself does not understand this reality and continues to present only information he wants the investors to hear.  But the investors are wise to his tricks and overall investor confidence in PNG has plummeted close to nil if the side comments of investors are to be taken at face value.    Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minist

by PAUL FLANAGAN PNG’s government must be embarrassed by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assessment of its economic performance. In an extraordinary step, and the first time in PNG’s 41 year history of Independence, the PNG government has refused to release the IMF’s 2016 summary of the PNG economy. 98% of countries agreed to release this information in 2015 – so the PNG government has moved to the bottom 2% of governments when it comes to economic transparency. In the IMF’s final press release (see here) before Christmas (generally seen as a good time to bury bad news), the International Monetary Fund indicated that “The [PNG] authorities need more time to consider the publication of the staff report and the related press release.” This appears to be polite IMF diplomatic speak for the PNG government not wanting to release the information. The IMF mission visited in mid-2016. An early draft asking for PNG government comments would have been provided about two months ago

by LOWEY INSTITUTE The 2016 Budget was  one of emergency  for Papua New Guinea. Adjusting to a 20% collapse in revenue caused by plummeting commodity prices and an economic slow-down, the government has implemented expenditure cuts  that are harsher  than those contained in Greece’s austerity package. In many ways, the 2016 Budget was the one PNG had to have. While commentators, including myself, have questioned the severity and the way in which cuts have been made, all agree the government could not keep spending at the pace it has been given the collapse in revenue and rapid increases in public debt. But will expenditure actually slow? And what is the true level of public debt in PNG? We can shed some light on these questions by focusing on a specific, big-ticket item of expenditure: PNG’s hosting of the APEC leaders’ meeting in 2018. Port Moresby is going through a massive transformation in preparation for this event, driven by a confusing mixture of public, private and

by MICHAEL.J PASSINGAN Last month Prime Minister Peter O’Neill publicly stated that the nation’s annual GDP growth rate is 9.2 percent. He said Papua New Guinea’s growth rate is the envy of many world economies – “9.2% is miles better  than the global average, which is about 3 percent or less”. That was untrue when he said it, and the Prime Minister knew it to be untrue. The growth rate for the year, according to the 2016 Budget, was 4.2 percent. But in fact PNG’s GDP growth rate at the time Mr O’Neill lied to the people was less than 4.2 percent. Confirmation of that comes with the release yesterday of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. That authoritative document estimates PNG’s annual growth rate this year is 3.1%. This is very bad news for Papua New Guineans. It puts PNG’s GDP growth amongst the lowest in the world. But the accompanying graph shows that the situation is even worse than that. Under the corrupt, reckless and wasteful PNC Regime of Peter O’Neill, national

PNGBLOGS EXCLUSIVE PNG IS GONE AS A SOVEREIGN NATION IN JUNE IF NOTHING IS DONE TO REVERSE THE LOAN TAKEN BY O'NEILL GOVERNMENT TO BUY OSL SHARES. If the PNG Government does not find USD 1.5 Billion by 13th June, 2016, UBS will ask the government to Appoint a Receiver Manager for the Oil Search shares, the Receiver Manager will manager the Escrow account in Singapore. by June UBS will declare PNG bankrupt. This frightening revelation was revealed to PNGBLOGS by Government Insider working with the Department of Prime Minister and NEC who has sighted the original deed. The Principal Maturity date for the UBS loan was 13th March 2016.The Papua New Guinea Government has now K3.2 billion to pay UBS. We are in the grace period but that ends on the 13th June, 2016. Peter O'Neil signed with JP Morgan for refinancing turnaround time two weeks has lapsed. The World Bank, IMF, ADB and AusAid have already started painting bad picture about Peter O'Neil. He is an economi

by MICHAEL J. PASSINGAN On 21 March, at the PNC fund-raising – also known as the greatest gathering of thieves on earth – the Prime Minister boasted about PNG having an annual GDP growth rate of 9.2%. He said Papua New Guinea’s growth rate is the envy of many world economies – “9.2% is miles better than the global average, which is about 3% or less”.  LIES LIES LIES!  PNG’s annual GDP growth rate is 4.3%, according to the 2016 Budget papers, Volume 1, Table 1, page 107. Even worse, Treasury predicts annual GDP growth to fall to less than 3% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, according to the 2016 Budget papers, Volume 1, Chart 13 page 12.  This chart also demonstrates how O’Neill has wrecked the non-mining sectors – mainly agriculture, on which 90% of the people depend for their livelihood. His mad policies and his greed have reduced non-mining GDP growth from a high of 12% per annum in 2011 to about 3% per annum now.  MORE LIES!  He also told his dinner companions - PNC konman cr