The Creation of a subsequent Government is Unpredictable


By David Kawage Bitno

 

The Supreme Court challenge of the legality surrounding the election of PM James Marabe and the Speaker’s adjournment of Vote of No Confidence (VONC) to April 28, 2021 is a determined attempt to make PM Marabe’s post vacant.

 

The nation’s political mayhem has gone on for a fortnight, but little or even nothing is known of the Prime Minister's contention for the Vanimo Opposition Camp.

 

In this period of MPs swapping allegiance to and fro, there are four prominent dynamics that will considerably impact the outcome of a new government;

1.      Bougainville Road to Independence

2.      Corona Virus in Loloata Government Camp

3.      No nomination of alternate Prime Minister in the Opposition

4.      The Warrant of Arrest to be effected on 12 MPs in Opposition Camp

Let us gaze at each of them more narrowly to unearth the under current political repercussions.

1.         Bougainville Road to Independence

The road to Independence for Bougainville is not an easy journey and is an ultimate goal of every Bougainvillean. The leaders and the people of Bougainville have fought so hard which was evident in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville referendum. They have voted overwhelmingly to become independent from Papua New Guinea. Of the 180, 000 voters more than 98% have voted for independence and less than 2% voted to remain with PNG but with greater autonomy. PM Marabe swift actions for the referendum after seven months in office had indicated a steadfast commitment to Bougainville’s ultimate destiny.

The AROB vision for independence was looking favourable under the Marabe regime. Therefore, Bougainvillean leaders strongly appealed to their MPs to display undivided support to Marabe in this political cacophony. AROB President Ismael Toroama even commended Communication and Information Minister Timothy Masiu for his commitment to the Bougainville process by maintaining his loyalty to Prime Minister Marabe’s faction. Leaders from AROB extended pleas to their two MPs in the opposition to return to the government pack.

AROB MPs were hard-pressed to put the interests of their people first by aligning with Marabe for the greater independence of Bougainville. As mandated leaders the fate of their leadership lies with the people. This public pressure will bring about a conceivable defection of two Bougainville MPs to Loloata Camp is expected. If that is so, the opposition number will be dropped to 54 from 56 which Loloata Camp will gain carrying its reckoning to 52.

The two Social Democratic Party MPs of Governor Powes and Minister Justin Thatchenko are trapped in between, postured to be kind of a power broker but from a minor bloc. Their swift fidelity will propel the only MP of this term of parliament who moved around from four different political parties none other than John Kaupa, who may surely claim to have put the interests of his North East people ahead to link up with his counterparts to develop the city which was not his first time of giving such a trivial vindication. That will see a further depletion of opposition to 53 (excluding Powes and Justin), thus spiralling government stock of MPs to 55. The Marabe Government chance of effectively voting out the VONC motion either on December 01 or April 2021 is likely.

2.         Corona Virus in Loloata Government Camp

The contentious revealing of corona virus in the Loloata Camp established by the Police Minister Bryan Kramer and Emergency Controller David Manning is a setback to the predicted VONC in December 01 as contact tracing will continue even to the parliament house closing down the parliament for an indefinite period. The prospect of delaying the Parliament on December first to seek out the VONC is looming that the Marabe government will remain its supremacy for an unknown period.

3.         No nomination of alternate Prime Minister in the Opposition

The third dire squabble to contemplate is when such a volatile intense political standoff, parties’ amalgamation and nomination of an alternate PM candidate in the opposition is imperative for a formation of a new alternate government.  The atmosphere is pretty tense, corroding the serene co-existence and to maintain trust of the 56 MPs.

On the other end at Loloata Camp, PM James Marabe is enjoying the unbroken support from the 50 MPs. The government camp is more composed and geared to face the court challenges. They (government) are positive to clamp on to the reign till 2022. The lone menace in the government fold is the question of who will be Marabe’s second in command. The latent and palpable contender is none other than URP’s William Duma.

If Duma is primed for the Deputy PM post, a likely fissure in the bloc is looming, leading to a vehement stirring in the government camp that will surely tell an exit of original opposition tagged as Laguna Camp before May of 2019. These are the tangible power brokers, who may perhaps fuse with unresolved prominent parties of both government and opposition but with austere constraint to Peter O’Neil and his PNC Party. Never overlook and underrate Marabe’s devotion to PNC, anything could materialize, politics is fluid and volatile in PNG at this juncture.

4.         The Warrant of Arrest to be effected on 12 MPs in Opposition Camp

The Police Minister Bryan Kramer and his Police Commissioner David Manning are purportedly prepared to apprehend and press charges on 12 MPs upon arrival from the Vanimo Camp. This if successful, will prominently reduce the opposition numbers effectively in a state of possible VONC. Opposition attempts for a successful VONC to have a new government will be distorted. The political scene forecasted will lurk the principles of parliamentary democracy and will tantamount to more grim constitutional problems.  

The adverse impacts of Covid 19 pandemic on the economy have now knocked business investments into uncertainty. Given this present political stalemate and instability in the government will not attract economic growth and investment in the country. At least greater autonomy is decided in the way in which the judiciary interprets and resolves the recent constitutional crisis shaped in this political discord will at best redeem confidence of the business community and the investors to strive over. 

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